IPCC forecasts unavoidable climate change damage to oceans, food and Asia

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in February released another terrifying report. It forecasts that we are set to face a number of irreversible impacts from climate change over the decades to come, even with some effort to mitigate its effects. Not only human systems, but ecosystems are collapsing, too, it says.

This second part of the Sixth Assessment Report looks at vulnerabilities to ecosystems, biodiversity and human societies at the global and regional levels and assesses “the capabilities and limits of the natural world and human societies to adapt to climate change.”

Already between 3.3 billion to 3.6 billion people worldwide live in areas that are “highly vulnerable” to climate change, and millions of people are already suffering from food and water insecurity caused by it. Approximately half the world’s population is suffering “severe water scarcity for at least some part of the year,” says the report, titled “Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.”

Climate change has damaged marine and freshwater ecosystems, which is resulting in the loss of species, higher rates of disease, destruction of entire ecosystems, and degradation of fisheries, says the 3,600-page report. It includes scientific evidence for each key finding.

The report forecasts the impacts and risks of climate change that we will see in the near-term (2021-2040), the mid-term (2041-2060) and long term (2081-2100).

Near-term risks (2021-2040)

Even if global warming does not surpass the targeted 1.5 ºC rise, in the near term we will face an unavoidable increase in multiple climate hazards and risks to ecosystems and humans. Some of the specific concerns forecast for the next few decades include:

• Moderate to high risk of biodiversity loss in forests, and kelp and seagrass ecosystems
• Increasing sea level rise will disturb coastal settlements and infrastructure, sinking and destroying low-lying coastal ecosystems

Actions that keep global warming below 1.5 ºC would reduce this damage, but cannot eliminate all of it.

Mid- to Long-term risks (2041-2100)

After 2040, climate change will cause greater damage to human systems and ecosystems, depending on the level of global warming. Severe food insecurity and nutritional problems will emerge.

• Increased temperature and rainfall variability, floods, sea-level rise and drought will constrain food production and access, especially in vulnerable regions, weakening food security and nutrition.
• Global warming will increasingly undermine soil health and ecosystem functions, increase the number of pests and diseases, and reduce marine animal biomass, undermining food production in many regions on land and in the ocean
• Global warming of 2 ºC or higher in the mid-term would increase the severity of food security risks, leading to malnutrition and micro-nutrient deficiencies in South Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, Central and South America and small islands

Warming of 3 ºC or higher in the long-term would heighten regional disparity in food security risks

Complex risks and misguided actions may create new problems

Some of these impacts and risks are becoming more complex and harder to cope with. Multiple risks interact and plant new seeds of vulnerability and maladaptive actions that unintentionally increase climate-related risks can make things worse.

• Increasing numbers of heat and drought events will cause crop production losses
• A future sea level rise, with storms and heavy rainfall, will increase flood risks
• Sudden food production losses from heat and drought put us at risk of heat-induced labor productivity losses
• These interacting impacts will result in higher food prices, lower household incomes, malnutrition and climate-related mortality
• An inevitable sea level rise will cause loss of coastal ecosystems and ecosystem functions, groundwater salinization, and flooding and damage to coastal infrastructure that risks food and water security
• Redistribution of marine fish stocks, increasing risk of transboundary management conflicts among fisheries users, and inequitable distribution of food
• Maladaptation and adverse side effects of some emission reduction and carbon dioxide removal measures cause more risks

Specific key risks in Asia

• Some risks are also projected by region. In Asia, ocean ecosystems are in danger of collapsing and food and water security are at risk from climate change. Some examples are the following. (However, the development of synthetic diagrams is limited in Asia and the number of precise projections is currently inadequate.)
• Biodiversity loss, habitat shifts and division across freshwater, land and ocean ecosystems in relation to human systems
• More frequent, extensive coral bleaching and subsequent coral mortality induced by ocean warming and acidification, sea-level rise, marine heatwaves and resource extraction
• Decline in coastal fishery resources due to sea-level rise, decrease in precipitation in some parts and increases in temperature
• Temperature extremes, drought and rainfall variability will put food and water security at risk

Overall, the report warns that the magnitude of the effects of climate change is high. Even if we manage to keep global warming at 1.5 °C, damage will happen as the result of our actions to date.

The report reminded me of the well-known environmental scientist, Rachel Carson. She sent the world a wake-up call via her landmark book, Silent Spring. But 60 years on from that, humans’ influence on the environment has gotten even worse. Her wise words give us an insight into the fundamental premise the world needs to assume to deal with the situation: “Man is a part of nature, and his war against nature is inevitably a war against himself.” Unless we start taking action for the sake of both humans and our natural environment, there will be no peace.