Japan’s circular economy market projected to reach 683 trillion yen by 2050

Nikkei BP, in collaboration with Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting, released a comprehensive research report titled “Circular Economy Business Creation & Entry Strategy” on 15 December. The report provides a detailed analysis of the domestic market, projecting that the scale of circular economy-related businesses in Japan will expand significantly over the next three decades, reaching approximately 683 trillion yen by 2050.

Nikkei BP compiled this report to provide a comprehensive outlook on the new business environments emerging from the growing transition from linear economy to circular economy. The publication aims to assist companies in creating new circular businesses and formulating effective market entry strategies.

The report offers a unique estimation of the domestic circular economy market, covering the period from the present day to 2050. According to the findings, the market size for circular economy businesses in 2024 stands at approximately 260 trillion yen. This figure represents the total across 14 primary industrial sectors analysed and accounts for 27 per cent of the total market, including non-circular businesses.

Looking ahead, the analysis predicts robust growth driven by the introduction of new regulatory systems and the widespread adoption of circular economy designs. The market size is expected to more than double to approximately 598 trillion yen by 2030. By 2050, the market is projected to expand further to approximately 683 trillion yen. These projections include the anticipated expansion in demand resulting from institutional changes and the integration of circular principles into industrial design.

For this estimation, the researchers classified the domestic circular economy market into 14 industrial sectors. They modelled the mechanisms through which the circular economy functions in each sector to analyse the market scale independently. The report suggests that circular economy businesses will achieve steady growth not only through the expansion of related industries but also through the demand generated by new frameworks and design standards.

Kotaro Shimizu, Chief Researcher at the Economic and Industrial Unit of the Policy Research Business Division at Mitsubishi UFJ Research & Consulting, emphasised the strategic importance of this shift. He believes that the circular economy will become a new economic development model that goes beyond the framework of traditional environmental measures such as recycling, the use of recycled resources, and waste reduction. He added that for companies, it will serve as an integrated solution that balances environmental consideration with economic growth, creating numerous new business opportunities.

The release of this data signals that the circular economy is a core driver of future economic competitiveness. As the market approaches the 2030 milestone of nearly 600 trillion yen, businesses that fail to integrate circularity into their core strategies risk losing significant market share to more resilient, circular competitors.