IPCC warns of increase in climate refugees and heat-related deaths in Asia

IPCC Sixth Assessment Report on climate change was released on Feb 28. Every five to six years, scientists recommended by governments evaluate the latest findings from scientific research on climate change and publish an assessment report.

From this report, we are going to look at the impact of climate change on Asia, including Japan.

Water and Food Supply Threatened

Droughts in Asian countries are expected to increase by 5% to 20% by the end of the century, making the supply of water resources unstable. Particularly West and Central Asia will face severe water shortage challenges by the mid-21st century on several international transboundary rivers, including the Indus and Ganges.

In addition to drought, there will be declines in food production: fisheries, aquaculture, livestock production, and crop production, especially in South and Southeast Asia, in association with monsoon rains and average seawater temperature and pressure conditions. For example, in India, rice production could decline by 10% to 30% and maize production by 25% to 70%, assuming a temperature increase of 1°C to 4°C. Similarly, rice production in Cambodia could decrease by 45% with a temperature increase of 1°C to 4°C. In addition, warming-related pest outbreaks are expected to threaten major rice-producing countries in Asia, including Japan.

Climate change threatens our mental health and physical health

Climate change is also linked to mental health and has been noted to increase depression, anxiety, and suicide risk. It also threatens our physical health, including vector-borne diseases, malnutrition, and allergic diseases. Floods and droughts, for example, negatively affect food availability and prices and increase malnutrition in South and Southeast Asia. Heavy rains and rising temperatures increase the risk of diarrheal diseases, dengue fever, and malaria in tropical and subtropical Asia.

Increased number of climate refugees in Asia and urban impacts

Ironically, the poor will be most affected by climate change even though being least complicit in climate change. Therefore, the disparity continues to grow. One in three migrants now come from Asia, with the highest proportion of migrants from climate change-affected Pacific countries. In 2019, Bangladesh, China, India, and the Philippines each recorded more than 4 million disaster-related migrations. In Southeast and East Asia, cyclones, floods, and typhoons caused 9.6 million internally displaced persons in 2019, accounting for almost 30% of displaced people worldwide.

Meanwhile, economic development has led to an increasing number of people living in underdeveloped regions with the least capacity to adapt to climate change. For example, with a population of 163 million people, Bangladesh is arguably the most vulnerable country in the world to climate risks, with droughts, heatwaves, storm surges, severe flooding, and cyclones occurring regularly. Eventually, climate change and increased extreme events will increase migration flows across Asia, and the number of areas considered vulnerable to climate change will continue to grow. Japan already ranks among the top 10 countries in the world in terms of Average Annual Loss due to disasters.

Climate change will also interact with urban areas. By 2080, heat-related deaths are expected to increase from 940 to 100 million urban dwellers in South and Southeast Asia due to extreme heat and intense heat waves lasting more than 30 days per year. The urban heat island effect will be promoted throughout Asian cities. The heatwave days in Japan will increase by more than 20 days per year, and the frequency of heatwave days and related deaths will increase significantly in megacities such as Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya.

Importance of Individuals Working for System Change

These things will actually happen in the future unless we reduce greenhouse gases to zero by 2050. Sadly, they are already a reality in “climate change hotspots,” places with strong climate signals and high concentrations of vulnerable people. The areas of ongoing impact and the severity of the impacts continue to grow.

One of my university classmates, who is from Sri Lanka, where massive flooding and landslides occurred in many areas, including the largest city Colombo in June 2021, told me, “For me, climate change is already a reality. I am learning to change my government so that I and future generations can live.” Changing individual behavior is not enough. We each should push for systemic change against governments and large corporations.